In previous episodes we met TC, who is a typical table coach. In a strange turn of
events, TC has ended up with a grumpy genie (known as Dave to his friends) as his
tutor.
Last month, however, things took a sinister turn when it was discovered that there
are people out there who want Dave removed forever. Ironically, Dave was also having
similar problems from characters within the story as well...
TC sat looking at the computer screen in what looked a bit like a prison cell except
there was no furniture at all, just the computer. The two choices were still flashing
before him. He decided that he should reflect on everything that had transpired today
before he got into this position in order to give himself the maximum chance of choosing
the right option.
He had gotten out of bed early to discover Dave pacing back and forth in the living
room.
"I want you to answer the next question without thinking," frowned Dave. "I suspect
that you'll manage that quite easily," he added.
TC nodded.
"If I told you that there was an evil genie about to enter the room, what would he
look like?" asked Dave.
"Old, thin and with shifty eyes," said TC.
"Well, it's not you, then," replied Dave mysteriously.
TC looked confused. This would happen on several occasions today.
"I guess I'll explain," sighed Dave. "When a genie is summoned to the world, he takes
on an image and name drawn from the subconscious of the mind of the person who summoned
him. When you opened that book, for some odd reason you associated poker strategy
with someone called Dave who bears 'more than a little resemblance to a 50-year-old
man, thinning on top, but with a healthy 'tash and beard."
Dave paused for effect, and then continued.
"You can, however, see other genies, but they will appear to you as they appear to
the person to whom they are bound," he concluded and decided to continue pacing up
and down.
TC didn't find any of this information very interesting and couldn't see the relevance
of it.
Dave couldn't be bothered to explain any further at this time and changed the subject.
"We need to know more about the ways in which Brandon works," he explained to TC.
"You're going to have to apply for a job there."
Even TC felt underqualified to be applying for a job at Brandon's house of hi-tech
gambling, but he felt he owed it to Dave to do what was requested of him. He did,
however, have one concern.
"Won't it be obvious that I'm there to try to find information?" he asked.
"Probably," replied Dave. "It is likely that Brandon will be expecting it, but there
isn't much that he can do about it. He needs to pretend to trust you. If you actually,
really were intent on helping him, he would do so much damage by not trusting you
that it would not compensate for the reasonably small downside of us gaining information.
It's called an unexploitable strategy. We benefit, and there is nothing our opponent
can do about it."
TC grinned stupidly. It certainly sounded very clever.
TC's interview was short, and he had no idea how it had gone. He didn't mess around
with pleasantries; he just explained to Brandon that he loved the place so much that
he wanted to work there.
"I assume you don't know much about handicapping?" asked Brandon.
"Not much, although I understand how to bet. Surely there is something I can do around
here?" replied TC.
"We have a vacancy for an arber. Would you like to try that?" offered Brandon.
"I've never been to Michigan," replied TC.
"Not the place," sighed Brandon. "You would become an arber here."
"I haven't heard of her," said TC, shaking his head.
Brandon bit his lip and offered TC what looked like a credit card. "Take this, and
go through those doors in around three hours time," he pointed towards what looked
like an elevator door.
"What is it?" asked TC.
"It's a kind of automated interview," replied Brandon. "You'll start with 100 points.
If you can get enough points on the card, you'll get the job," he explained.
TC took the card and went home.
When he arrived, Dave was still pacing. "How did it go?" asked Dave.
"I think it went all right," grinned TC, "although I may need to learn a bit about
other forms of gambling," he said sheepishly before going on to explain the situation.
Dave nodded grimly at this news, although he didn't seem surprised. "I have too much
on my mind to really teach you much, although I suspect we'll be okay if we cheat.
I'll come with you."
TC screwed up his nose in disapproval. "Surely you can't come with me. If you come
into the house of the people that are trying to get rid of you, they're bound to detect
you," he observed.
Dave was not impressed with this criticism of his plan. "I have a full grasp of long
term strategies and even better instincts..." Dave began.
"I was reading an article. Sometimes an incorrect move can be a correct one or something
like that," noted TC.
Dave ignored TC and continued, "Anyway, I'm certain that Brandon cannot see me. In
fact the only person who can see me in this town, other than you, has already seen
me."
"Who's that? How do you know?" asked TC.
"You weren't interested earlier," sulked Dave. "Just think about who might be interested
in pirates and claims that he always loses at gambling. It's all pretty obvious really."
TC hadn't really expected things to get more complicated. "Pirates?!" he muttered,
under his breath.
"Now bring two dice, and let's get you this job," concluded Dave.
TC was let into Brandon's house by the doorman. Dave had decided to find another way
in and joined TC a few minutes later.
The elevator-style doors turned out to be operated by TC's credit card. Written on
the grey metal doors in big white letters were two words that terrified TC: "GAME
THEORY." The credit card slot indicated that it would be 10 points to operate the
doors, and TC decided that as there were no other options, 10 points would be a wise
investment.
As TC went through the doors, they slammed behind him. He assumed he could get out
if he wanted, but didn't really want to check.
The room was empty except for another set of doors at the far end of the room and
a computer terminal with three buttons labeled "Rock, Paper and Scissors." There were
several security cameras built into the top of the walls, and there was also a small
camera built into the floor at the place where TC was going to have to operate the
computer.
TC smiled happily. He remembered how he was so unlucky against the players from the
bar at this game and had no intention of getting unlucky today.
The instructions on the computer screen explained that TC could only gamble on an
all or nothing basis at this game. At the bottom was a note explaining that TC would
require an unexploitable strategy to stand any chance at all as the computer was programmed
to the highest level of artificial intelligence.
For the first time TC was a little worried. He thought back to Dave's description
of an unexploitable strategy and didn't think it applied here. So he decided to sit
and think for a while.
Incredibly he put his hands into his pockets and found the two dice. Even more incredibly
he connected them with the problem in hand.
What was bothering him was that the only unexploitable strategy he could think of
involved picking at random, and there were two huge problems with that.
The first problem was that picking at random wouldn't win him anything unless he got
lucky, and the second problem was that rolling two dice gave eleven different numbers,
and this was not divisible by three.
It took him 30 minutes to work out a way around the second problem. He would, of course,
throw both dice. If they totaled six, five or four, he would play rock. If they totaled
eight, nine or ten, he would play paper. and if they totaled something else, he would
play scissors.
Each combination had the same chance of coming in. He remembered now what a true genius
he really was.
He could think of no way around the other problem, but decided that not losing would
have to do. He played the game using his strategy for a few minutes, and eventually
the computer displayed a message. "Despite you randomly forgetting which roll was
rock and which was paper, your strategy was still unexploitable." You have doubled
your 90 credits. Congratulations."
TC spent 30 of his hard earned credits to get through the second game theory door
and into the next room.
This room was identical to the first one as far as TC could see.
This time, however, the question was far more worrying.
"You are supposed to have entered this area by yourself. However, it appears that
someone else also attempted the first room. You have been placed in separate rooms.
It is obvious that you have an accomplice, but because we are fair here, we'll offer
you the following deal. If you admit that the two of you are working together, we
will use your confession to punish your friend for all of his credits, and he will
also get a visit from the head of the entire operation which may be very unpleasant.
We will not punish you at all. Of course, if neither of you confesses, you will be
fined 50 credits each for being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Should you both
confess, then you will both be fined 100 credits, which is the standard punishment
for cheating in this establishment."
TC was in rather a dilemma as to what to do here. The obvious thing was to just stay
quiet and to assume that Dave would do the same, but he knew that Dave wouldn't trust
him. He also knew that Dave could not afford a visit from any genie-hating "boss,"
and this could be avoided by simply confessing that he knew TC was here. On the other
hand, although TC pretty much trusted Dave, he still had a few doubts about him, and
he didn't really fancy a visit from the head of the operation either. TC also didn't
want to lose any credits. Losing 50 credits each might be enough to make them both
fail.
After going through the entire day's events in what passed for his mind, TC decided
that he would trust Dave's "instincts" and "grasp of long term strategies" and keep
quiet. If Dave's instincts were that good, he would do the right thing whatever TC
did anyway. TC pushed the "Don't confess" button.
"Both of you have elected not to confess, which was the best play for the team. Your
credits have been doubled," declared the computer.
TC rushed to the door and paid 45 credits to go into the third room. He wanted to
leave this room as quickly as possible.
The third room was once again identical to the other two, except that this time there
was no slot to insert the card into the exit door.
Before TC even had time to read the question, Dave entered the room behind him.
"I have no idea how they split us up for the first question," smiled Dave, "but I'm
impressed that you didn't betray me on the second one."
TC had never been so pleased to see someone that nobody else could see in his entire
life.
"Let's get this over with," he said, and motioned towards the computer, which this
time had a numeric keypad.
Dave agreed, although he couldn't help adding, "But we'll have to play that prisoner
game at home sometime and see who ends up losing the fewest credits. That's far more
interesting."
The third question was as follows: "You can gamble any amount of credits on the spin
of a roulette wheel Red or Black. You can keep gambling until you either win, or go
bust. Of course if you go bust, then you won't be progressing any further. If you
win, then you will go through the next door.
Dave frowned. "This one is impossible," he explained. "There is no play that gives
us a long term edge."
TC thought he had a solution. "I want to have a go at this," he told Dave.
Dave shrugged. "There is no correct answer, so you might as well do what you like."
TC placed a bet of one credit on Red. It lost. He then bet two credits on Red. It
lost again.
"You cannot win with this doubling-up system," shouted Dave. "It's called the Martingale
system. It is doomed to failure. Trust me on this — you will regret this. These people
know all about negative expectation."
TC did some quick counting on his fingers and looked back at Dave. "I have enough
credits to bet eight times. I'd be pretty unlucky if they all lost," he explained.
TC proceeded to lose the next five bets of four, eight, sixteen, thirty-two and sixty-four
credits.
Dave was looking at his own card and wondering how best to solve this problem. At
least they still had a second chance.
TC typed in the last bet, hit red, and waited.
To his surprise, the game didn't play, and a message came up on the screen.
"You win. This was the right strategy to make a profit nearly every time. Despite
the plays being negative in the long run, they were the best available to solve the
problem."
Dave didn't know whether to laugh or cry.
"You see," gloated TC. "Sometimes an apparently wrong decision can be correct. I learned
that recently. Aren't you impressed?" he smirked, as they walked through into the
fourth room.
"This was not one of those times," sighed Dave and nudged TC, so that he would look
into the room.
The fourth room contained a lone figure sitting behind a desk. It was Patch, the barman,
and he looked extremely pleased with himself.
To be continued...
Lorinda
Copyright© 2005 by Lorinda - All rights reserved
(THIS ARTICLE PRINTED HERE WITH THE PERMISSION OF LORINDA)